National polls
this far out are meaningless and they only gauge the potential national popular
vote. However, Presidential Elections are not won with a Majority of the
Popular Vote; they never have been. Presidential Elections are won by winning a
majority of Electoral Votes1.
Proof of this was Bush v. Gore in 2000.
Start with the 2012 Electoral Map
In 2012 Barack Obama
won 332 electoral votes and Romney won 206. For a Republican Candidate to win
the Presidency, they would need to move 64 Electoral Votes from the Democratic
Column to theirs. With Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Nominee, this may be feasible
given just about any Republican Nominee except maybe Donald Trump. In a
previous blog,
I delineate my rationale as why Mr. Trump will not be the Republican Nominee
and why he will not run as a Third-Party Candidate.
Democrats start with a 232-191 Lead
States2
can be categorized in one of seven demographics:
·
Solid Democratic – States with winning
margins of 20% or more
·
Strong Democrat – Winning Margin between
10% and 20%
·
Lean Democrat – Margin between 6%
and 10%
·
Swing – Defined Below
·
Lean Republican – Margin between 6%
and 10%
·
Strong Republican – Margin between
10% and 20%
·
Solid Republican – Margin of 20%
or more
Solid Democrat/Republican
Generally, deep
Red States will remain Red and heavily Blue States will remain Blue, regardless
of who heads either ticket. In 2012, Barak Obama won the Maine 1st
Congressional District3, California, Massachusetts, Maryland, Rhode
Island, New York, Vermont, Hawaii, and the District of Columbia2 by
margins over 20%. There is near certainty that their 120 electoral votes will
be cast for the Democratic Party’s nominee.
Mitt Romney won
Arkansas, West Virginia, Idaho, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Nebraska 3rd
Congressional District3, and Utah with margins in excess of
20%. These represent 68 Electoral Votes
that will be cast for the Republican Nominee.
States can change
columns after major changes in demographics and almost all of these states are at
least a generation/decennial census away from changing. A political upheaval can also move these states
from one party to another. The last major
shift was the Reagan Revolution in 1980. Nothing in the 2016 Race points to
these states changing sides.
Strong/Lean
In 2012 there
were 13 states with 113 Democratic Electoral Votes and 14 States with 123 Republican
Electoral Votes that can be classified Strong/Lean. As with the solid states, I
see nothing, short of a significant Third Party candidate, that will move these
states from Democrat to Republican.
Given that none
these states will now change color in 2016, without counting a single vote, the
scoreboard starts out 232-191 in favor of the Democrats. The republicans need
to find 79 Electoral Votes and the Democrats only 38. The outcome of the 2016
Presidential Election will hinge on the Swing States.
What is a Swing State?
For determining
which states will be swing states in the 2016 election, I refer to the Wikipedia entry for Swing
States. University of Oregon Political Science Professor Joel Bloom presents
an analytical approach for determining Swing States.
Which States are the Swing States in 2016?
Based on
Professor Bloom’s analysis, the 2012 swing states were those states where the
margin of the state’s popular vote within the national margin plus 2%. In 2012,
there were 7 swing states having a total of 99 Electoral Votes4.
Can Clinton Carry the Swing States?
I’ll start with
two basic assumptions. First, the Clinton name energizes the base, the
Republican Base. With Hillary Clinton heading the Democratic Ticket, Republican
turn-out will be at least 5% greater than in 2012; regardless of their nominee. After twenty-four years of the ‘vast right-wing
conspiracy’ demonizing the Clintons, not only will the Republican Base show up
just to vote against her, but also the 14% of the electorate who identify themselves
as Republican-leaning Independents5.
The second assumption
is Clinton could lose 5% or more of the proportion of the vote Barak Obama received
in 2012. One reason is these states have enacted laws such as photo-id. These laws will preclude a portion of the
Democratic base from voting. Most significantly though, is that Hillary
alienates many Independents; both the 12% of the electorate that are true
Independents5 and the 16% that lean Democratic5.
To be fair, all
of the votes Clinton loses would not necessarily go to the Republican candidate.
Most would go to the Green Party, other candidates, or no candidate. For this
analysis, I have assumed that on 25% of the lost votes would be cast for the
Republican ticket.
Florida
Florida had the
closest winning margin at 0.88%. With 29 Electoral Votes, it is the most
critical state needed to deny Clinton an electoral majority. If Florida stays
Blue, the path for defeating Clinton becomes nearly improbable. However, even
if she does not lose any of the Obama Vote, a mere 1.8% increase in Republican
Vote will flip Florida. Conversely, a 1.2% decrease in the Democratic vote with
no increase in Republican turn-out will also move Florida. With Rubio as the Republican VP Candidate, a 2%
increase will be exceeded.
Republicans
Win Florida Clinton: 303 Ryan: 235
Ohio
Though not as
critical as Florida, Ohio’s 13 Electoral Votes put it as the third largest swing
state behind Pennsylvania. Obama won Ohio by only 2.98%. and is more likely to
switch colors. Given the full 5%
Republican increase, Clinton losing just 0.8% will Ohio goes Republican. If Clinton
loses 4% of the 2012 vote, no Republican increase is needed.
Expect the Kasich
to campaign hard in Ohio for the Republican ticket.
Republicans
Win Ohio Clinton: 285 Ryan: 253
Given Republican
wins in Florida and Ohio, they need to find only 17 more from the 67 Electoral
Votes out of the remaining 6 states.
Pennsylvania
Since Obama won
by 5.38%, Pennsylvania will be slightly harder to win than Virginia and
Colorado. However, with 20 electoral votes, it would be sufficient in order to
win the Election. For Republicans to take Pennsylvania, either they hit the 5%
increase and the Democrat have a 4% decrease or a there is 5% Democratic
increase with a 3.25% Republican increase.
If
Republicans Win Pa Clinton: 265 Ryan: 273
Virginia
13 Electoral
Votes; Obama won with a 3.88% margin.
The ranges for Virginia
to go Red are:
5% Republican increase
and 2% Democratic decrease
5% Democratic
decrease and 0.2% Republican increase
Colorado
9 Electoral
Votes; Obama won with a 5.36% margin.
The ranges for Colorado
to go Red are:
5% Republican
increase and 4% Democratic decrease
5% Democratic
decrease and 3.4% Republican increase
New Hampshire
4 Electoral
Votes; Obama won with a 5.58% margin.
The ranges for New
Hampshire to go Red are:
5% Republican
increase and 4.25% Democratic decrease
5% Democratic
decrease and 3.7% Republican increase
Iowa
6 Electoral
Votes; Obama won with a 5.81% margin.
The ranges for Colorado
to go Red are:
5% Republican
increase and 4% Democratic decrease
5% Democratic
decrease and 4.55% Republican increase
Even if Clinton
carries Pennsylvania, Virginia plus any one of other states add up to at least
17. Colorado, New Hampshire and Iowa add up to 19.
The +5%/-5% range
ignores any significant impact the ‘Bernie or Bust’ movement may have on
Democratic Turnout. It also does not factor in the implications of a Republican
October
Surprise that could move the 5% Democratic falloff out to 10% or even 15%.
With all of
this, the path to the White House looks doubtful for Hillary Clinton in
November.
Footnotes
1. Each State gets two Electoral Votes as a base (one for each
Senator) and one for each Congressional District. Except for Maine and
Nebraska, Electoral Votes are winner take all.
2. The District of Columbia is not a State but has three Electoral
Votes. When the term State is used, it is a generic reference to the jurisdiction
associated with the Electoral Votes.
3. Maine and Nebraska are the two states that do not allocate their Electoral
Votes as winner-take-all. One Electoral Vote is awarded to the winner in each
of their Congressional Districts and two to the overall winner of the State’s
popular vote.
4. Mitt Romney won North Carolina by 2.04%, close enough to fall into
the category of Swing State but given the methodology of this analysis, it will
remain Republican with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Nominee.
5. The
Growing Myth of the ‘Independent’ Voter, Phillip Bump, Washington Post,
January 11, 2016.
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