The 2016 Republican
nominee will not be Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio or Jeb
Bush. It won’t be any Republican in the original field of seventeen. The Republican
nominee will be Paul Ryan.
Paul Ryan is the choice of Charles and David Koch. Charles and David Koch are the single
largest donors to the conservative cause. If not for Koch money, the Heritage
Foundation, the preeminent conservative think tank, would not exist. The
American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) would not exist. Neither would any
of the other Orwellian-named Conservative AstroTurf Organizations. The Tea
Party would not be the political force it is today without Koch funding funneled
through Freedom Works. Bottom line, follow the money.
To make this
work, the Ryan Express must have the backing of nearly all the NOT CRUZ delegates. After
the second ballot and no candidate has reached the magic number, Trump, Rubio, Kasich,
Carson and Bush all agree to release their delegates to Ryan. In exchange Rubio
is offered VP; Kasich, Treasury; Carson, Surgeon General and JEB!, Ambassador
to China (so he can follow in Daddy’s footsteps).
But what can
they offer Trump to get him to agree? Wouldn’t Trump supporters revolt? Wouldn’t
Donald run as a Third Party Candidate and fracture the Republican Party? The answer both
these questions is an unequivocal NO.
Deep down, Trump does not want to be President.
Sure, Trump has
been blustering as to what he will do if the nomination is stolen and it is
just bluster; a red herring. When you listen to what Trump says when talking
about this, he always qualifies his statement with ‘if I am not treated fairly’
at the convention. Trump is about Trump and Trump’s EGO.
But
wouldn’t Trump’s ego preclude him from conceding the nomination to Ryan? Wouldn’t
being elected President be the ultimate winning? As for the latter, there is a
huge risk of Trump loosing. Polls do not favor his election. That would be too much for his ego to absorb.
Not losing
would outweigh winning. For Trump it is the art of the deal. Trump could cut the ultimate deal of his career
with the Koch Brothers; he may have done so even before he announced his
candidacy.
The
scenario that lets Trump preserve his ego is simple. One where Trump takes the
stage and announces that he is more concerned about the future of the Party,
the future of the Country than about becoming President. Trump releases his
delegates to Ryan; Trump is hailed the savior of the Party and Country.
What logical argument can the Koch’s use to convince Trump to play their
game? There is no ‘logical argument’ to
be made. Remember, follow the money.
Trump has
something that is greater than his ego, DEBT. The Koch’s buy The Donald out of several
underperforming projects. Say $500M or more; pocket change for Charles and
David. Trump gets cash, financial liquidity
and the spotlight as the man who saved the Republican Party.
For Donald and
his EGO, that’s winning.
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