It's About US, Not Just Bernie

It is not ‘game over’. Bernie’s bid to become the Democratic nominee may have fallen short, but the Revolution continues. For me this is not been just about Bernie.  I am not part of a Bernie Cult.  I supported Bernie, not because of Him but because of his platform; a progressive ideology that I have held since 1972; long before I heard of Bernie Sanders from Vermont in 2004.  Last April he became the standard bearer, the figurehead, the icon for what I believe in. Unconditional surrender is not option.

Hillary and the DNC need to earn my vote and I’m waiting to see their offer.  Between now and the convention they will be negotiating with Bernie. I trust he will negotiate terms that will best advance the Revolution.  I’m sure he knows what he wants and what at what point he is willing to compromise.

For me, I know what I’m looking for.

Platform: I Would prefer 100% Bernie’s Platform. There are some planks I will accept compromise and others not.

               Single Payer – Not negotiable, but some leeway on phasing implementation such as initially including a Public Option in the exchanges.

               Stop TPP/Trade Deals – not negotiable. All trade deals must be Fair Trade, not Free Trade and definitely not the creation of Corporate Statehood.

               Minimum Wage – $12/hour if and only if Employer pays health care (will make Public Option attractive to businesses) and includes a built in bi-annual increase to an inflation adjusted $15 within 8 years.

               Environment –  Fracking Ends. Period. Creation of a program on the scale and commitment as the Manhattan Project’ and ‘Apollo Project’ combat Climate Change with a target of achieving or surpassing 350 goals by no later than 2030. (If it is not too late already.)

               Criminal Justice – For-Profit Prison System ends. Police forces are demilitarized and emphasis placed on neighborhood policing. Justice Department establishes a division solely for the Investigation and prosecution, as warranted, of excessive use of force. Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1 and reclassified similar to Tobacco and Alcohol.

               Public PreK-16 – This can be phased in over 8 years. Initially, two-year Junior College covered. Financed by speculation tax.  Money from this goes for tuition as well as direct funds to local Community College for infrastructure expansion and payroll subsidies.  State Colleges and Universities get initial grants for expansion to prepare.

               Existing College Debt – The Federal Reserve buys all college debt at face value and refinanced at the same interest the lend to banks. The minimum Annual Payment is limited to a maximum 10% of net taxable income payable a part of income tax filing.

               Banking – Banking Cartel must be broken up.  At the minimum, a fire wall established between Investment Banking and Commercial Banking. 

               As for most other issues, Hillary’s current position on those will be acceptable planks in the Democratic Party Platform.

DNC Reform: Debbie Wasserman-Schultz removed as Chair. This is not negotiable. Debbie must go. Return to the Obama Policy of no Lobbyist Money. Naming Tulsi Gabbard Chair would demonstrate a commitment to reform.

Elizabeth Warren is offered Senate Democratic Leader and if we all vote a Democratic ticket she will be Senate Majority Leader.

Vice-President: Bernie or not Bernie, that is the tough question I’ve been torn about. I have made very convincing arguments to myself for each path.  Right now I favor Bernie on the ticket, but only if the other conditions are met.  Bernie accepting the position will be a confirmation that the DNC has agreed to OUR terms.

I can envision an effective campaign where Bernie holds rally’s in large venues across the country. He features and promotes the local House, Senate, State Legislature and Gubernatorial Candidates. This is the only way we have any chance of removing obstructionist Republicans from all levels. Most importantly the State Races. The 2020 census and redistricting is not that far off.

If you are ‘Bernie or Bust’, ask yourself if you are you a true evolutionary.  Are you a disciple of Bernie’s message? If so, remember, ‘Not Me, US!”. If you are ‘Never Hillary’, I am with you but…

I live in Texas. Electoral Votes will go to the Republican barring a total melt down of the Republican Candidate and I don’t see a chance there. If Bernie is not on the ticket, my plan is to vote Green at the top and Democratic for all down-ballot races.  I will spend the send monthly reminders to those who won that my vote put them in office and I expect them to represent me. If you live in a solid red or blue state, I encourage you to do the same. If you live in a swing state, I beseech you take one for the New Revolution and keep the Republican Candidate out of the White House.

Can Hillary Clinton win in the November General Election?

National polls this far out are meaningless and they only gauge the potential national popular vote. However, Presidential Elections are not won with a Majority of the Popular Vote; they never have been. Presidential Elections are won by winning a majority of Electoral Votes¹.  Proof of this was Bush v. Gore in 2000.

Start with the 2012 Electoral Map

In 2012 Barack Obama won 332 electoral votes and Romney won 206. For a Republican Candidate to win the Presidency, they would need to move 64 Electoral Votes from the Democratic Column to theirs. With Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Nominee, this may be feasible given just about any Republican Nominee except maybe Donald Trump. In a previous blog, I delineate my rationale as why Mr. Trump will not be the Republican Nominee and why he will not run as a Third-Party Candidate.

Democrats start with a 232-191 Lead

States² can be categorized in one of seven demographics:

·         Solid Democratic – States with winning margins of 20% or more

·         Strong Democrat – Winning Margin between 10% and 20%

·         Lean Democrat – Margin between 6% and 10%

·         Swing – Defined Below

·         Lean Republican – Margin between 6% and 10%

·         Strong Republican – Margin between 10% and 20%

·         Solid Republican – Margin of 20% or more

 

Solid Democrat/Republican

Generally, deep Red States will remain Red and heavily Blue States will remain Blue, regardless of who heads either ticket. In 2012, Barak Obama won the Maine 1^st Congressional District³, California, Massachusetts, Maryland, Rhode Island, New York, Vermont, Hawaii, and the District of Columbia² by margins over 20%. There is near certainty that their 120 electoral votes will be cast for the Democratic Party’s nominee.

Mitt Romney won Arkansas, West Virginia, Idaho, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Nebraska 3^rd Congressional District³, and Utah with margins in excess of 20%.  These represent 68 Electoral Votes that will be cast for the Republican Nominee.

States can change columns after major changes in demographics and almost all of these states are at least a generation/decennial census away from changing.  A political upheaval can also move these states from one party to another.  The last major shift was the Reagan Revolution in 1980. Nothing in the 2016 Race points to these states changing sides.

Strong/Lean

In 2012 there were 13 states with 113 Democratic Electoral Votes and 14 States with 123 Republican Electoral Votes that can be classified Strong/Lean. As with the solid states, I see nothing, short of a significant Third Party candidate, that will move these states from Democrat to Republican.

Given that none these states will now change color in 2016, without counting a single vote, the scoreboard starts out 232-191 in favor of the Democrats. The republicans need to find 79 Electoral Votes and the Democrats only 38. The outcome of the 2016 Presidential Election will hinge on the Swing States.

What is a Swing State?

For determining which states will be swing states in the 2016 election, I refer to the Wikipedia entry for Swing States. University of Oregon Political Science Professor Joel Bloom presents an analytical approach for determining Swing States.

Which States are the Swing States in 2016?

Based on Professor Bloom’s analysis, the 2012 swing states were those states where the margin of the state’s popular vote within the national margin plus 2%. In 2012, there were 7 swing states having a total of 99 Electoral Votes⁴.

Can Clinton Carry the Swing States?

I’ll start with two basic assumptions. First, the Clinton name energizes the base, the Republican Base. With Hillary Clinton heading the Democratic Ticket, Republican turn-out will be at least 5% greater than in 2012; regardless of their nominee.  After twenty-four years of the ‘vast right-wing conspiracy’ demonizing the Clintons, not only will the Republican Base show up just to vote against her, but also the 14% of the electorate who identify themselves as Republican-leaning Independents⁵.

The second assumption is Clinton could lose 5% or more of the proportion of the vote Barak Obama received in 2012. One reason is these states have enacted laws such as photo-id.  These laws will preclude a portion of the Democratic base from voting. Most significantly though, is that Hillary alienates many Independents; both the 12% of the electorate that are true Independents⁵ and the 16% that lean Democratic⁵.

To be fair, all of the votes Clinton loses would not necessarily go to the Republican candidate. Most would go to the Green Party, other candidates, or no candidate. For this analysis, I have assumed that on 25% of the lost votes would be cast for the Republican ticket.

Florida

Florida had the closest winning margin at 0.88%. With 29 Electoral Votes, it is the most critical state needed to deny Clinton an electoral majority. If Florida stays Blue, the path for defeating Clinton becomes nearly improbable. However, even if she does not lose any of the Obama Vote, a mere 1.8% increase in Republican Vote will flip Florida. Conversely, a 1.2% decrease in the Democratic vote with no increase in Republican turn-out will also move Florida.  With Rubio as the Republican VP Candidate, a 2% increase will be exceeded.

Republicans Win Florida   Clinton: 303   Ryan: 235

Ohio

Though not as critical as Florida, Ohio’s 13 Electoral Votes put it as the third largest swing state behind Pennsylvania. Obama won Ohio by only 2.98%. and is more likely to switch colors.  Given the full 5% Republican increase, Clinton losing just 0.8% will Ohio goes Republican. If Clinton loses 4% of the 2012 vote, no Republican increase is needed.

Expect the Kasich to campaign hard in Ohio for the Republican ticket.

Republicans Win Ohio   Clinton: 285   Ryan: 253

Given Republican wins in Florida and Ohio, they need to find only 17 more from the 67 Electoral Votes out of the remaining 6 states.

Pennsylvania

Since Obama won by 5.38%, Pennsylvania will be slightly harder to win than Virginia and Colorado. However, with 20 electoral votes, it would be sufficient in order to win the Election. For Republicans to take Pennsylvania, either they hit the 5% increase and the Democrat have a 4% decrease or a there is 5% Democratic increase with a 3.25% Republican increase.

If Republicans Win Pa   Clinton: 265   Ryan: 273

Virginia

13 Electoral Votes; Obama won with a 3.88% margin.

The ranges for Virginia to go Red are:

5% Republican increase and 2% Democratic decrease

5% Democratic decrease and 0.2% Republican increase

Colorado

9 Electoral Votes; Obama won with a 5.36% margin.

The ranges for Colorado to go Red are:

5% Republican increase and 4% Democratic decrease

5% Democratic decrease and 3.4% Republican increase

New Hampshire

4 Electoral Votes; Obama won with a 5.58% margin.

The ranges for New Hampshire to go Red are:

5% Republican increase and 4.25% Democratic decrease

5% Democratic decrease and 3.7% Republican increase

Iowa

6 Electoral Votes; Obama won with a 5.81% margin.

The ranges for Colorado to go Red are:

5% Republican increase and 4% Democratic decrease

5% Democratic decrease and 4.55% Republican increase

Even if Clinton carries Pennsylvania, Virginia plus any one of other states add up to at least 17. Colorado, New Hampshire and Iowa add up to 19.

The +5%/-5% range ignores any significant impact the ‘Bernie or Bust’ movement may have on Democratic Turnout. It also does not factor in the implications of a Republican October Surprise that could move the 5% Democratic falloff out to 10% or even 15%.

With all of this, the path to the White House looks doubtful for Hillary Clinton in November.

 

Footnotes

1.   Each State gets two Electoral Votes as a base (one for each Senator) and one for each Congressional District. Except for Maine and Nebraska, Electoral Votes are winner take all.

2.   The District of Columbia is not a State but has three Electoral Votes. When the term State is used, it is a generic reference to the jurisdiction associated with the Electoral Votes.

3.   Maine and Nebraska are the two states that do not allocate their Electoral Votes as winner-take-all. One Electoral Vote is awarded to the winner in each of their Congressional Districts and two to the overall winner of the State’s popular vote.

4.   Mitt Romney won North Carolina by 2.04%, close enough to fall into the category of Swing State but given the methodology of this analysis, it will remain Republican with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Nominee.

5.   The Growing Myth of the ‘Independent’ Voter, Phillip Bump, Washington Post, January 11, 2016.

The Goldnam-Sachs Transcripts: Logic and the October Surprise

One can deduce the content of her speeches by simple logic.

 

Ask yourself this question:

Was she lecturing them on how they will be broken up if they continue with their greed or was she laying out policy whereby they can continue on their path and rake in even more profits?

I believe it was the latter simply because the baksters must have liked what they heard otherwise they would never have paid her for multiple speeches.

If I’m wrong and it is the former, then she easily cleans Bernie’s clock in the remaining contests.  If it is the former, she could have ended Bernie’s campaign back in October. If it is the former, it would be to her political advantage to release the transcripts. When have you ever known a Clinton to not use every political advantage at their disposal and go for their opponent’s jugular?

Logic dictates that it is the latter and releasing them would be the death knell of her ambitions.

Given that the transcripts would be toxic to Clinton’s Presidential bid, do you think we will ever see them? If Clinton is the Democratic Party’s nominee the answer is YES!

Remember, Heidi Cruz is an executive with Goldman-Sachs; expect an October Surprise.

Video included.

That is of course if she never actually gave any speeches.  One other option is that she showed up, collected a check and never said more than ten words.  They were outright bribes disguised as speaking fees.  
 

The 2016 Republican Nominee will be…

The 2016 Republican nominee will not be Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush. It won’t be any Republican in the original field of seventeen. The Republican nominee will be Paul Ryan.

Paul Ryan is the choice of Charles and David Koch. Charles and David Koch are the single largest donors to the conservative cause. If not for Koch money, the Heritage Foundation, the preeminent conservative think tank, would not exist. The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) would not exist. Neither would any of the other Orwellian-named Conservative AstroTurf Organizations. The Tea Party would not be the political force it is today without Koch funding funneled through Freedom Works. Bottom line, follow the money.

To make this work, the Ryan Express must have the backing of nearly all the NOT CRUZ delegates. After the second ballot and no candidate has reached the magic number, Trump, Rubio, Kasich, Carson and Bush all agree to release their delegates to Ryan. In exchange Rubio is offered VP; Kasich, Treasury; Carson, Surgeon General and JEB!, Ambassador to China (so he can follow in Daddy’s footsteps).

But what can they offer Trump to get him to agree? Wouldn’t Trump supporters revolt? Wouldn’t Donald run as a Third Party Candidate and fracture the Republican Party? The answer both these questions is an unequivocal NO.  Deep down, Trump does not want to be President.

Sure, Trump has been blustering as to what he will do if the nomination is stolen and it is just bluster; a red herring. When you listen to what Trump says when talking about this, he always qualifies his statement with ‘if I am not treated fairly’ at the convention. Trump is about Trump and Trump’s EGO.

       But wouldn’t Trump’s ego preclude him from conceding the nomination to Ryan? Wouldn’t being elected President be the ultimate winning? As for the latter, there is a huge risk of Trump loosing. Polls do not favor his election.  That would be too much for his ego to absorb.

Not losing would outweigh winning. For Trump it is the art of the deal.  Trump could cut the ultimate deal of his career with the Koch Brothers; he may have done so even before he announced his candidacy.

       The scenario that lets Trump preserve his ego is simple. One where Trump takes the stage and announces that he is more concerned about the future of the Party, the future of the Country than about becoming President. Trump releases his delegates to Ryan; Trump is hailed the savior of the Party and Country.

       What logical argument can the Koch’s use to convince Trump to play their game?  There is no ‘logical argument’ to be made. Remember, follow the money.

Trump has something that is greater than his ego, DEBT. The Koch’s buy The Donald out of several underperforming projects. Say $500M or more; pocket change for Charles and David.  Trump gets cash, financial liquidity and the spotlight as the man who saved the Republican Party.

For Donald and his EGO, that’s winning.